The perception of economic agents about the new ecoomic development plan, focusing on attracting productive investments to the metropolitan region of Brasília

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CARVALHO, Rogério Galvão de [1], CASADIO, Maxwell Anderson do Prado [2], SOUZA, Gabriel Luiz Lino de [3]

CARVALHO, Rogério Galvão de. CASADIO, Maxwell Anderson do Prado. SOUZA, Gabriel Luiz Lino de. The perception of economic agents about the new economic development plan, focusing on attracting productive investments to the metropolitan region of Brasília. Revista Científica Multidisciplinar Núcleo do Conhecimento. Year: 06, Ed. 08, Vol. 02, pp. 81-96. August 2021. ISSN: 2448-0959, Access link: https://www.nucleodoconhecimento.com.br/social-sciences/productive-investments

ABSTRACT

There are indications that the programs in place to generate economic development in the metropolitan region of Brasília are giving low returns, especially those that try to promote investments. Thus, the government sees the need to develop a new public policy, which coordinates all the economic agents involved for this purpose. But at the beginning of the elaboration of the new development policy, the question arises: How do government agents, the productive sector and researchers in the Federal District see the formulation of a new development plan? Thus, the present work consists of consulting some of these agents and gathering their perceptions about 1) The level of maturity of public policies focused on socioeconomic development in Brasília in recent times; (2) the degree of importance of a specific public policy for this purpose; and 3) Satisfaction with the guidelines intended for the Economic Development Plan focused on Attracting Productive Investments. Thus, with this research we discovered whether, in the perception of its economic agents, this public policy has the necessary and sufficient characteristics to transform the Metropolitan Region of Brasília into a national area of attraction of investments and to make its growth less conditioned to government spending.

Keywords: metropolitan region of Brasília, regional development, Investment Promotion.

INTRODUCTION

It is public knowledge that the population of Brasília is one of the largest in the country, today around 3 million inhabitants, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), it had, in the period of one year, between 2018 and 2019, a population growth of 1.36% (one point thirty-six percentage points). This is a population growth much higher than the national average of 0.8% (zero point eight percentage points) in the same period.

If we include the region surrounding the Federal District, that is, the Metropolitan Region of Brasília this population is close to 4.1 million inhabitants. In addition, it (with only 60 years of existence) is already one of the most populous regions in Brazil. In recent decades, still according to the ibge sense, it is perceived that this metropolitan region went from the 9th (ninth) to the 4th (fourth) most populous Metropolitan Region of the country, second only to the Metropolitan Regions of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte, as Carvalho records; Leal e Souza (2021).

The Metropolitan Region of Brasília is known as RIDE, an integrated development region that, in fact, is an area analogous to the Brazilian metropolitan regions, but as it is located in more than one federative unit of the Brazilian territory, in this case, The Federal District (DF), Minas Gerais (MG) and Goiás (GO), it is named RIDE-DF.

On the other hand, the change in the GDP of the Federal District in the last 10 (ten) years, probably due to the recent economic crisis, has visibly not kept pace with population growth. It is noted, with the very rapid population growth of this region, more pronounced than most other states, associated with the bad behavior of the GDP growth rate, ceteris paribus, that there would be, in the near future, a fateful collapse in economic development, especially in the provision of public services, as already observed in Carvalho; Leal e Souza (2021).

Since revenue is a percentage of GDP, these public services would also collapse over time, because this collection would be relatively lower each year. Thus, the need for an assertive public policy, specifically aimed at minimizing the negative aspects of this problem, is clear.

In these terms, in order to minimize the socioeconomic problem, it is important, according to the literature on the subject, that there be a correct formulation of specific public policy to equate production and consumption by adhering to the pace of population growth, in order to avoid this collapse.

This research aims to investigate whether Brasília brings together the characteristics to become a region of attraction and productive investments at the national level, that is, in a national reference area for the destination of private enterprises, especially external, taking into account the opinion of regional economic agents.

To begin the evaluation of the characteristics of Brasília and the maturity of the policies of attraction of productive investments, for this transformation, we understand that the appropriate theoretical framework for this case is the economic theory of Clusters, known in Brazil as that of Local Productive Arrangements (APLs), and the theory of regional economy, especially the models of Von Thunen and that of Dixit-Siglitz.

The Public Policy being formulated in Brasília by the local government was based, in addition to the appropriate theoretical framework, the Chinese model of public policy of attraction of investments, adopted in the Pearl River Valley, which transformed, in 30 years, for example, the city of Shenzhen, which was practically a fishing village, in the most important smart city on the planet, a kind of adaptation of Von Thunem’s economic model, which according to the studies conducted by the government of Brasília, the proposal of public policy, proved to be very adherent to the characteristics of the metropolitan region of Brasília.

It is essential to respect the idiosyncrasies of the Metropolitan Region of Brasília, so that the process of elaboration, formulation, implementation and monitoring (monitoring, evaluation, analysis of results and adjustments) according to the premises of the technicians of this government so that this corrective public policy is more appropriate to the reality of Brasília, especially with regard to capital-intensive enterprises.

The characteristics of Brasília can be, according to this plan, conducive to transform it in this national area of destination of productive investments. According to IBGE, the Federal District has, for example, a median education of the population much higher than the national average, obtaining the internet is also much higher than the national average. In addition, it encompasses the headquarters of the command of the three powers of the Union and the embassies of the countries that have diplomatic association with Brazil.

Although it has an above-average population growth and currently ranks 4th (fourth) in the list of the most popular Metropolitan Regions, it has one of the lowest population densities, 74.45 inhabitants/km² on the same list. Another competitive privilege is the proximity of Big ones

Productive Centers (Anápolis, Goiânia, Formosa, Unaí, Catalão, Cristalina, Catalão, Uberlândia, Uberaba, Araguari, João Pinheiro, Paracatu and others).

Another point to be seen as positive is the interconnected crescent of two metropolitan regions (Goiânia and Brasília) and its surroundings, called the Goiânia-Anápolis-Brasília axis, which is currently, according to IBGE data, one of the most grown regions in Brazil, with a population of approximately 7.5 (seven points five) million inhabitants.

There are projections that in the next decade the conurbation of this region would be filled. The cities are interconnected particularly by the BR-060 highway, there are also direct flights between Goiânia and Brasília and the planning of a passenger transport railway from Brasília to Goiânia, such technical feasibility studies were carried out by ANTT (National Land Transport Agency) in June 2016, whose budgeted value was R$ 7.5 billion.

The Federal District stands out, from the other states, in several indicators of economic competitiveness, because it has better averages than the national one in eight, of the ten pillars of the Competeability Ranking of states. In some of the pillars the DF has a prominent position. In Human Capital, for example, he was in 2nd (second) place and in Social Sustainability in the 6th (sixth) place.

A critical factor for evaluating the growth potential of a region or state is the availability of labor, considering both the size of the available contingent and its qualification and the expectation of growth. In these areas, the DF shows great competitive advantage. The share of the working-age population (15 to 64 years) in the DF is 72.5%, (seventy-two points five percentage points) is the highest among all states, another advantage.

In the 1970s, the river delta north of Hong Kong territory was an agricultural region, the city of Shenzhen had 30,000 (thirty thousand) inhabitants. In 1979, the Chinese government created four Special Economic Zones with the intention of attracting foreign direct investment and encouraging private initiative.

Shenzhen’s designation as a Special Economic Zone was a strategic move that had an immediate impact on the Pearl River Delta. Several factors have helped contribute to the region’s meteoric rise: (1) proximity to Hong Kong’s financial sector; (2) a world-class seaport; (3) a huge cheap labor; (4) cheap and abundant land; and (5) few regulatory impediments for fast-growing companies.

In the next two decades, the region’s GDP grew more than 10-fold and urbanization, reinforced by large-scale infrastructure projects, began strongly. The Pearl River Delta is growing and is now becoming the largest contiguous urban region in the world.

According to the guidelines of the New Economic Development Plan, formulated by the Government of the Federal District, by the characteristics of the metropolitan region of Brasília, in a way, guarding the proper proportions, they could be inspired by this Chinese model, with regard to the elaboration and implementation of programs, projects, actions and partnerships with the productive sector and civil society, from the new economic development plan. In this sense, it is necessary to understand: How do government agents, the productive sector and researchers in the Federal District see the formulation of a new development plan?

A relevant point that dealt with the elective opinion survey (with representatives of the productive sector, civil society and the government), was to investigate whether Brasília, according to the local economic agents surveyed, gathers the characteristics to become a national area of attraction of private investments in Brazil through the following aspects: 1) legislation; 2) Potential Local Productive Arrangements; 3) Competitive Advantages; 4) Innovation Economy Ecosystem; 5) Logistics; 6) Education; and (7) Business Environment.

Another issue that proved extremely important was to identify the perception of economic agents about the efficiency of the old public policies of economic development and the new economic development plan focused on attracting productive investments, whose guidelines have as premise: (1) promotion of local productive arrangements; (2) improvement of the innovation economy ecosystem; and (3) investments in the creative and circular economy sectors, to transform the Federal District into a relevant area of interest for investments and private enterprises in Brazil.

THEORETICAL REFERENCE

Unprecedented historical growth rates have been frequent since the second half of the twentieth century, economic miracles, which have led to the emergence and rapid economic development of countries in various regions of the world. Japan was one of the first, followed by South Korea, Taiwan, Brazil particularly in the 1960s, and others in Southeast Asia. Nowadays we have China, India and Vietnam composing this group of countries.

As pointed out by Paulino (2020) Brazil also went through a so-called economic miracle between 1968 and 1973, known as the hardline era of the dictatorship. And, as observed by Stough et al (2014), this phenomenon replicates similarly in regions within countries, known as productive clusters that are concentrated in a given geographical space. Perhaps their best-known example is Silicon Valley in southern California, where you can find the headquarters of many companies in Communication and Information Technology (ICT) and related areas.

However, it contains, around the world, numerous other productive clusters, such as those located in the Pearl River Delta in Southern China (Shenzhen, Dongguan, Zhuhai, etc.), or bangalore in India, or that of São José dos Campos in Brazil. There is no doubt that they are correlated, which is why it is essential to identify opportunities for the promotion of productive clusters as public policy aimed at economic development, both in its national and regional dimensions.

The benefits, departing from productive clusters, have been analyzed since Alfred Marshall (1890). They are associated with productivity growth as a consequence of the agglutination of economic agents and companies in the same geographical environment. Fujita et al (1999), playing Marshall, distinguish three types of agglomeration economies: 1) externalities of knowledge; 2) deepening of the labor market; and 3) geographical proximity.

What relates to “knowledge spillovers” has a mechanism that makes the ideas generated in the cluster appropriate dearly by other members at no cost to anyone and benefits for all.

The second is associated with the deepening of the labor market (in specific skills) which is also beneficial for all involved. Finally, the geographical proximity of companies facilitates the functioning of integrated production chains.

These agglomeration economies also operate to attract new agents and companies, producing growth dynamics for the entire cluster. Marshall’s original vision led to a series of related theoretical and empirical concepts, such as: production chains, industrial districts, techno poles or science-technological parks, clusters and, in Brazil, local productive arrangements (APLs). According to Leme et al (2019) the terminology of local productive arrangements can be used even in the context of agribusiness, given the integration of the productive system.

Industrial clusters, according to Porter (1990, 1998), are geographical concentrations of interconnected companies and institutions operating in a specific sector. This broad definition includes relationships between similar companies that share common resources, relationships between companies that are part of a production chain, participation of government agencies, research institutions, etc.

With globalization, the importance of geographical comparative advantages is in the background and the appreciation of competitive advantages becomes more relevant. Competitive advantage requires the existence of an environment conducive to entrepreneurship, in particular the ecosystem of the innovation economy. The process of economic globalization is umbilically linked to the process of globalization of information, according to Lima (2020) the process of acceleration of computerization takes place at the end of the 20th century and can be seen by the beginning of the dissemination of personal computers.

In the last 20 (twenty) years, the international economic conjuncture shows that competition between countries and companies is increasingly acute and competitiveness corresponds to the capacity for innovation. In this scenario, cluster development has been established as an important public policy strategy for development and international insertion, especially in relation to small and medium-sized companies.

The European Union has excelled at this. Both the promotion of clusters and the strategy of smart specializations are pillars of this industrial public policy. One of the activities of interest to international cooperation with other countries is the Collaborative Cluster Platform. Until the middle of the second decade of the 21st century, the Platform maintained formal cooperation with the Permanent Working Group of the PlAs (GTP APL) of the Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services (MDIC).

Local productive arrangements, APLs, to a greater or lesser extent, are according to Cassiolato and Lastres (2004) Economic agents located in a specific region whose focus of joint economic activity present links involving the participation and interaction of companies (producers of final goods and services, or suppliers of insumand equipment, or providers of consulting and services, or customers, among others) and their various forms of representation and association.

In addition, they may include depending on the degree of maturity of the APL, also several other public and private organizations focused on: training and training of human resources, such as technical schools and universities; research, development and engineering; promotion and funding.

This concept, introduced by Redesist in 1997, was widely accepted and in a few years was adopted by public institutions aimed at promoting innovation and industrial development, such as FINEP, SEBRAE and BNDES.

In 2004, the current Ministry of Economy is constituted an initiative for the promotion and formulation of public policies aimed at APLs with the participation of different government agencies, which adopts a simpler definition for APLs, according to which it constitutes a considerable number of enterprises and individuals who operate around a productive activity that predominates and shares observed forms of collaboration and some method of governance,   including large, medium and small enterprises.

The recognition of the existence of an APL is based on four main variables: 1) the sectoral concentration of companies in the territory; 2) the concentration of individuals occupied in productive activities related to the APL model sector; 3) cooperation between the actors participating in the arrangement (entrepreneurs and other participants) in search of greater competition; and 4) the existence of governance mechanisms.

According to the “Torremolinos Charter” of the Council of Europe (European Union, 1983), spatial planning is the spatial expression of public policies and for the balanced development of regions depends basically on: scientific discipline, appropriate administrative technique and interdisciplinary and global approach.

In the case of the Federal District, the Integrated Region of Economic Development of the Federal District and Surroundings (RIDE-DF), currently languished by Complementary Law No. 163 of June 2018, and includes, in addition to the Federal District, 29 (twenty-nine) municipalities in the State of Goiás and 04 (four) municipalities of the State of Minas Gerais.

In addition, we have the legislation approved on the territorial planning of the Federal District: 1) The Master Plan of Territorial Planning (PDOT); 2) The Economic-Ecological Zoning of the Federal District (ZEE-DF); 3) The Land Use and Occupation Act (LUOS); and 4) The Plan for the Preservation of the Urban Complex of Brasília (PPCUB). There are still some government dealings indicating an evolution in recent years on the subject.

Some of the very relevant negotiations and in the executive agenda of the first echelon of government, for example, the New Economic Development Plan, (new economic development plan), a public policy that intends, in the coming years, to implement programs, projects and actions that exactly foster the transformation of the Metropolitan Region of Brasília into a relevant national area of attraction of productive investments.

This Policy of Attraction of Investments (AI) has been positively positive within the Federal District. The bills are: 1) District Plan (AI); 2) Creation of the Agency (AI) of Brasília; and 3) Sustainable Development Policy. On the other, the proposals for government decree: 1) Working Group for the preparation of the Agency’s (IA) PL; 2) Working Group for the elaboration of the PL of productive development policy; 3) Working Group for the regulation of the Law of the ZEE-DF. Finally, the ordinances of SDE/DF for: 1) The implementation of the Investor and Entrepreneur Attraction Program in local productive arrangements or local commercial arrangements in DF; and 2) Ordinance for the dissemination of the list of APLs of the Federal District.

It is important to highlight that the continuous growth of the economy is a phenomenon that began with the Industrial Revolution, until the beginning of the 19th century economic activity did not suffer great variations, as Maddison (2001) notes. According to the author, the world’s GDP per capita remained practically stationary in the first thousand years of our era. Subsequently, between the years 1000 and 1820, that is, in the subsequent eight centuries, this world GDP increased with a growth of 5% (five percentage points) for each century elapsed. In the following period, from the analysis of the economic historian, there was an astronomical growth between 1820 and 1998, of world GDP grew approximately 1.3% per year.

In more recent periods, there has been even higher growth, with increasing rates, so-called economic “miracles”. In the 20th century, Japan, Germany, the “miracle” of Brazil and the Asian “tigers” (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong), other East Asian countries and, more recently, China, Vietnam, and India, rates close to 10% (ten percentage points) per year.

Until the beginning of the 19th century, as Maddison (2001) reports, both the world population and GDP were stagnant. From this period on, world GDP grew more than the population, thus, due to the accumulation of physical capital, there was an increase in per capita product.

Conventional (neoclassical) theories explain that economic production is directly related to “production factors”, basically the workforce and physical capital (capital and labor). However, empirical evidence shows that marginal factor yields are decreasing. This means that as the stock of one of the factors increases, the same increase in the amount used in it has a smaller and smaller effect on production.

If the labor force stock is limited by population growth and marginal capital incomes are decreasing, then economic growth will approach a steady state in which product growth equals that of the population, tending to zero in most of the world.

The increasing use of production factors has been very important in the early stages of economic growth. Empirical examples are England and the United States in the 19th century, Brazil and China in the second half of the 20th century.

During these periods, labor was incorporated into the economy and industrialization processes were accompanied by investments in physical capital and infrastructure. It turns out that this type of “extensive growth”, resulting from the increase in the employment of production factors, is currently a depleted model.

However, we observed that economic growth continues, even if the model was apparently exhausted, according to Schultz (1972) the growth rate of key resources did not capture the production growth that was being observed because we have used capital and labor measures that have been refined in ways that exclude many of the improvements that have been made in the quality of these resources.

To formalize this unexplained growth, the theory of endogenous growth and the concept of total factor productivity (TFP) emerged, defined as the difference between observed growth and the growth of factors of production. According to Romer (1986, 1992), through Research and Development (R&D) or through public innovation policies, innovation is the central element to explain long-term economic growth, as ideas are non-rival goods, that is. that is, goods whose availability does not decrease when used by certain producers, explain how marginal incomes may be non-decreasing. With the new theory of endogenous growth, concepts such as human capital and creative economy emerge.

METHODOLOGY

A survey was conducted between May and July 2019 with an elective sample of some representatives, society, the private sector and the government to investigate their perception of the New Economic Development Plan. To perform the research, we analyzed primary data, through the application of a questionnaire (with liker scale), together with the representatives involved with the socioeconomic development of the Brasília region, through an elective choice of the sample.

This is a qualitative analysis of primary data to identify the perception of these actors about this public policy that is being formulated in Brasília to minimize the impacts of the negative aspects of the economic problem identified by the research, accelerated growth associated with GDP stagnation in recent years. The questions were conceived based on the foundations proposed by this New Plan. The research preliminary evaluated the perception of these authors on two aspects: (1) the maturity of public policies to attract investments; and (2) the assertiveness of the government with the new economic development plan focused on attracting investments.

In order to seek the cooperation of different actors of the Federal District, questionnaires (for different organs, entities and representations of civil society) were forwarded, to assess perception as an elective sample as recommended by the qualitative analysis method. The questionnaires were sent electronically by means of a letter using the public machine for sending, also physically sent the printed version of the same document. Thus, we reaped the perception of what is being produced, with regard to: actions, projects, programs and plans related to this public policy of attracting productive investments.

The questionnaire was divided into three parts: (a) evaluation of the proposed thematic axes; (b) evaluation of the perception efficiency of the work done; and (c) agreement with the axes.

RESULTS

Of the 24 (twenty-four) institutions that received the questionnaire: 14 (fourteen) answered and 10 (ten) did not send their answers. The axes indicated as priorities in the questionnaire had good acceptance by more than 90% of those who answered. The observed rejection rate is virtually nil. As we can see below:

(1) Improving the business environment:

From the continuous scale of (0 to 5), 92.8% (ninety-two point eight, percentage points), of those who answered the questionnaire, assigned values higher than 4 (four) in the efficiency of the new economic development plan:

  1. 71,4%   (5,0)
  2. 21.4% (from 4.0 to 4.9)
  3. 0% (from 3.0 to 3.9)
  4. 7.2% (from 2.0 to 2.9)
  5. 0% (from 1.0 to 1.9)
  6. 0% (from 0.0 to 0.9)

(2) Improvements in logistics infrastructure:

From the continuous scale of (0 to 5), 92.8% (ninety-two point eight, percentage points), of those who answered the questionnaire, assigned values higher than 4 (four) in the efficiency of the new economic development plan:

  1. 64,3%       (  5,0   )
  2. 28.5% (from 4.0 to 4.9)
  3. 0% (from 3.0 to 3.9)
  4. 0% (from 2.0 to 2.9)
  5. 0% (from 1.0 to 1.9)
  6. 7.2% (from 0.0 to 0.9)

(3) Efficiency:

From the continuous scale of (0 to 5) 100%, values greater than 03 (three) were attributed to the efficiency of the new economic development plan:

  1. 35,6%       (  5,0   )
  2. 42.9% (from 4.0 to 4.9)
  3. 21.5% (from 3.0 to 3.9)
  4. 0% (from 2.0 to 2.9)
  5. 0% (from 1.0 to 1.9)
  6. 0% (from 0.0 to 0.9)

(4) Guidelines:

With a continuous scale of (0 to 5) where zero represents total disagreement and five total agreement, 100% agreed with the guidelines presented as relevant by the New Economic Development Plan.

  1. 64,3%       (  5,0   )
  2. 28.5% (from 4.0 to 4.9)
  3. 7.2% (from 3.0 to 3.9)
  4. 0% (from 2.0 to 2.9)
  5. 0% (from 1.0 to 1.9)
  6. 0% (from 0.0 to 0.9)

The questionnaire was intended to capture the initial perception of the sample of some relevant agents (representing government entities and independent researchers) on the following topics: 1) The level of maturity of public policies focused on socioeconomic development in Brasília in recent times; (2) the degree of importance of a specific public policy for this purpose; and 3) Satisfaction with the guidelines of the Economic Development Plan with a focus on Attracting Productive Investments

As for the level of maturity of existing public policies, there are indications that it has not been satisfactory to the sample. The high assessment of things such as improving the business environment and infrastructure shows that these axes are not being well worked out. Another type of challenge in existing policies, which divides opinions among the stakeholders, is the granting of subsidies and incentives from the government, which the GDF has no history of succeeding. The inefficiency of the incentives designed by existing development programs today has been pointed out as part of discontent by some respondents.

Regarding the need to create a new development model for the metropolitan region of Brasília, it seemed to be well accepted in this initial research. Among the guidelines that are consensus among agents is infrastructure and improvement of business environment. But other issues, such as the choice of sectors of the economy or which production chains to develop; as well as the strategy, for example the aforementioned granting of benefits, are not yet consensus among the agents and need further study on the part of the government to be elaborated.

CONCLUSION

Given the socioeconomic problem presented, the possible socioeconomic collapse, ceteris paribus, from the dilemma discussed by the research and the corrective public policy presented, the New economic development plan with a strength in attracting investments that aims to transform Brasília into a national area of destination of productive investments, the questionnaire was formulated for sectors involved in the process.

According to the result of the questionnaire of an elective sample, for representatives of the productive sector, civil society and government, the public policy called, New economic development plan, which is being formulated from the identification of a socioeconomic problem of the metropolitan region of Brasília, in order to transform it into an area of national attraction of productive investments, is quite assertive, according to them.

It is observed that Brasília is a region that has some characteristics conducive to becoming a national region of interest to attract productive investments, as demonstrated by the technical studies and secondary data, pointed out in this article.

This research captures only the opinion of experts on the start of the preparation of a development plan in order to verify whether the direction being taken is satisfactory. In addition to the theoretical, legal and case studies needed to create a new development model for Brasília, it will be necessary to listen more often to stakeholders. That is, as the plan matures it is necessary to consult the productive sector, as well as the academy, in order to adapt the proposals to reality.

Moreover, from the point of view of the maturity of specific public policies to attract productive investments, according to the results of the questionnaire, they reveal, for those who answered, a good level of maturity according to the results of the research.

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[1] PhD in progress in Business and Social Sciences. Universidad de Ciencias Empresariales y Sociales, UCES, Argentina. Master’s degree in Economics. Catholic University of Brasília (CAPES Concept 6), UCB/DF, Brazil. Specialization in Specialization in Public Law. Estácio Brasília University Center, Estácio Brasília, Brazil. Bachelor’s degree in Economics. University Center of Brasília, UniCEUB, Brazil.

[2] Graduated in Economic Sciences from the University of Brasília.

[3] Graduating in Economics (UnB).

Submitted: June, 2021.

Approved: August, 2021.

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